New studies show that peak oil is due in 2014. Kuwaiti scientists have updated oil predictions previously based on the famous Hubbert model, which had correctly predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil reserves would peak within 20 years. The new multicycle Hubbert Model, used by the Kuwaiti scientists evaluated oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries.
Even though the new approach originates from the Hubbert model, it overcomes the limitations and restrictions associated with the original Hubbert model. As opposed to Hubbert single-cycle model, the new model has more than one cycle depending on the historical oil production trend and known oil reserves. The presented method is a viable tool to predict the peak oil production rate and time. The scientists say: “The model is simple, accurate, and totally data driven, which allows a continuous updating once new data are available.”
The study led by Ibrahim Nashawi has also shown how many countries have already hit their peak including Canada, the U.S., Mexico, Russia, Norway, the U.K., China, Iran, and Indonesia.
OPEC member countries are expected to peak in 2026 whereas non-OPEC countries included in the study peaked in 2006. Saudi Arabia, which has the largest oil reserve in the world, “will remain by far the highest crude oil producer for years to come,” the study states.
The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate, they suggest.
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline.
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We need to adapt. Take a look at this article The Great Transition: http://www.scribd.com/doc/21656220/The-Great-Transition-Navigating-Social-Economic-Ecological-Change-in-Turbulent-Times