According to the International Labour Organization, in its annual Global Employment Trends report (GET) global unemployment in 2009 could increase over 2007 by a range of 18 million to 30 million workers, and more than 50 million if the situation continues to deteriorate.
The ILO report also said that in this last scenario some 200 million workers, mostly in developing economies, could be pushed into extreme poverty.
Key projections
- Based on November 2008 IMF forecasts, the global unemployment rate would rise to 6.1 per cent in 2009 compared to 5.7 per cent in 2007, resulting in an increase of the number of unemployed by 18 million people in 2009 in comparison with 2007.
- If the economic outlook deteriorates beyond what was envisaged in November 2008, which is likely, the global unemployment rate could rise to 6.5 per cent, corresponding to an increase of the global number of unemployed by 30 million people in comparison with 2007.
- In a current worst case scenario, the global unemployment rate could rise to 7.1 per cent and result in an increase in the global number of unemployed of more than 50 million people.
- The number of working poor – people who are unable to earn enough to lift themselves and their families above the US$2 per person, per day, poverty line, may rise up to 1.4 billion, or 45 per cent of all the world’s employed.
- In 2009, the proportion of people in vulnerable employment – either contributing family workers or own-account workers who are less likely to benefit from safety nets that guard against loss of incomes during economic hardship – could rise considerably in the worst case scenario to reach a level of 53 per cent of the employed population.
Without a doubt the final result of less jobs will be a surge in poverty. Even for those still employed, salaries and working conditions could decrease.
Access the full report on ILO.
Image by 39752318@N00 under Creative Commons.
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